Questão 13 - CESGRANRIO 2014

Rise in violence ‘linked to climate change’

Rebecca Morelle (Science reporter, BBC World Service )

  Shifts in climate are strongly linked to increases

in violence around the world, a study suggests.

  US scientists found that even small changes

in temperature or rainfall correlated with a rise in

assaults, rapes and murders, as well as group

conflicts and war. The team says that with the current

projected levels of climate change, the world is likely

to become a more violent place.

  Marshall Burke, from the University of California,

Berkeley, said: “This is a relationship we observe

across time and across all major continents around

the world. The relationship we find between these

climate variables and conflict outcomes are often very

large.”

  The researchers looked at 60 studies from

around the world, with data spanning hundreds of

years. They report a “substantial” correlation between

climate and conflict. Their examples include an

increase in domestic violence in India during recent

droughts, and a spike in assaults, rapes and murders

during heatwaves in the US. The report also suggests

rising temperatures correlated with larger conflicts,

including ethnic clashes in Europe and civil wars in

Africa.

  Mr Burke said: “We want to be careful, you

don’t want to attribute any single event to climate

in particular, but there are some really interesting

results.”

  The researchers say they are now trying to

understand why this relationship exists. “The literature

offers a couple of different hints,” explained Mr Burke.

“One of the main mechanisms that seems to be at

play is changes in economic conditions. We know that

climate affects economic conditions around the world,

particularly agrarian parts of the world.

  “There is lots of evidence that changes in

economic conditions affect people’s decisions about

whether or not to join a rebellion, for example.” But

he said there could also be a physiological basis,

because some studies suggest that heat causes

people to be prone to aggression.

  “It is a major priority for future research to

distinguish between what is going on in each

particular situation.” The scientists say that with the

current projected levels of climate change the world is

likely to become a more violent place. They estimate

that a 2C (3.6F) rise in global temperature could see

personal crimes increase by about 15%, and group

conflicts rise by more than 50% in some regions.

  Commenting on the research, Dr Stephan

Harrison from the University of Exeter said it was

a “timely study”. “What they have found is entirely

plausible... For example, we already know that

hotter and drier weather causes an increase in urban

violence. Likewise, during cooler and wetter weather

people tend to stay indoors, and the threat diminishes.”

However, other researchers have questioned whether

climate breeds conflict.

 

Available at: <http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/scienceenvironment-23538771>. Retrieved on: Sept. 7th 5 , 2013. 

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